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CNBC
Dec 2, 2012 7:30pm EST
america's economy at stake. president obama's initial offer on the fiscal cliff was resoundingly rejected by republicans. it included a $1.6 trillion tax increase, double what he campaigned on. also included $400 billion in entitlement cuts eliminating the need for congressional approval to a raise the debt ceiling. the markets rebounded later in the week following the latest hopes on a fiscal cliff agreement. america's economy grew at a faster pace than initially expected in the third quarter of the year. the second reading of the gross domestic product showed it at rate of 2.7% spurred by stronger inventories and exports. the securities and exchange commission is looking for a new chairman. mary shapirp schapiro announcin she will step down after nearly four years on the job. the obama administration says it will announce a replacement in the near future. >>> starbucks has a new way to spend a lot of money. it is introducing the most expensive blend made from a rare costa rican variety named geisha. it is $7 a cup and only available in 48 stores. if you order one, drink it slow
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00pm EST
do you think we come out on the fiscal cliff? are you expecting the economy to go over the fiscal cliff and see these taxes go high hadder and spending cuts take effect? >> my personal view is i'm still optimistic. i think the conversation has been constructive since. do we have a solution on the table yet? no. but i'm optimistic we'll get to a framework. >> why? >> there's been enough dialogue. there's been movement. everyone seems to recognize the problem. everybody realizes there has to be a revenue component, spend component, entitlement reform component. for us, the business community and all the ceos, certainty is the greatest stimulus for us. >> do you support tax rates going higher? >> me personally, as an individual, more importantly the business community, which i'm part of. we support something inclusive. if rates were higher in a videocasset vacuum, i'm not sure we'd be supportive of that. we have to make sure the consumers, those who spends a lot of the dollars, the middle class, are protected in this exercise. >> i guess the question i'm really getting at is, do you
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 3:00pm EST
fiscal cliff. >> this ism number that came out today was a disaster. i don't think the market really appreciates just how bad this was for the economy. this is a multiyear low reading in the manufacturing numbers. we haven't seen a number like this since 2009. we haven't seen an employment index number like this since september of 2009, the last time it was at this level, unemployment, 9.8%. we have a nonfarm payrolls number coming out on friday. you'll be lucky to see a positive number in front of that. i don't see how the market overcomes that kind of thing. independent of all this jibber jabber over the fiscal cliff, the economy is in really rough shape now. >> it is. we're seeing businesses cut back, getting ready for the eventuality they see coming, no deal by december 31st this worsening. sam, how do you want to be invested in 2013? where is the growth in the economy coming from, if anywhere? >> i think the growth is coming from an improvement in the housing sector. i think we are starting to see a slowdown in the job loss from the government sector. so, i think we're going to be seeing a better than half speed recovery. so, you do
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 7:00pm EST
baseball's feeling a fiscal cliff tax frenzy. that coming up in about 30 minutes. >>> now switching gears, with just 33 days until the country's economy plummets off the tax and fiscal cliff and there's still no deal in sight, we see today a daily caller op ed suggesting that republicans in congress should dive head long off the cliff. really? i'm not sure i'm on board with that one. but let's talk. maybe i could figure it out. here now is the co-author of that op ed, neil patell of the daily caller and we welcome back texas republican senator kay bailey hutchson. neil, you got to walk me through this, buddy. i think if the republicans jump off the cliff and refuse to negotiate, their political standing is going to be substantially worse than it even is today. >> larry, first we do not say that republicans should refuse to negotiate. that would be political suicide. that's crazy. i think they're likely to get a deal that has a really big tax increase and that also comes with a bunch of phony spending cuts. they'll either be way out in the out years of count the savings from winding down the wars yet again. and a deal with big tax increases and
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00pm EST
more. >> that's hard to understand given how much going over the fiscal cliff would hurt the economy. why is going over the fiscal cliff worth it for just this one component? if you can get the other components, why wouldn't you take that? >> good question. thanks for asking. what we're trying to do is put in place a comprehensive balance set of fiscal reforms that put us back on the path to living within our means and create room for investing to make the economy stronger, make sure we're protecting medicare for future generations, and forcing the government to use the taxpayers' resources more wisely. in that context, you have to have a significant amount of revenues. we don't see a way of doing it that makes any sense or has any political viability without rates going up as part of that deal. again, the size of the problem in some sense is so large it can't be solved without rates going up. i think there's a broad recognition of that reality now. if you listen carefully to the talk not just in this town, but you hear what businesses and investors say, i think there's broad recognition
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 4:00pm EST
, it's more like a fiscal cliff and we're b bungee jumping. the markets have done well. the fundamentals in corporate america have been way better than the economy. earnings growth and revenue growth in the s&p 500 has dramatically slowed since the second quarter. i think unfortunately one thing people are missing is that the uncertainty today is going to show up in the fundamentals in the first quarter, maybe even the first half of 2013. we still have a lot of issues in europe. andrea merkel has to get elected in the second half of next year. that's going to make it difficult for any pro-growth solutions to appear in europe. i think, frankly, i'm not that confident that the market hasn't already positively priced in a fiscal cliff resolution. i think the first half is like a bungee jump. >> so dan, cut through all of that, right. if we could put aside trying to forecast where the s&p is going to be, where the dow is going to be, regardless of where the markets in general are going to be, i believe you have stock picks for us. name what they are and will they be able to perform regardless of the macro environment? >> all right. we are focused on. companie
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 9:00am EST
, i don't think the uncertainty is necessarily going to melt away, whether we get a fiscal cliff deal or not. what i do think we're starting to see is you have the largers economies in the developed world, all throughout europe, and japan, during sandy, a lot of what happened tot the bank of japan, you have central bans that are going to work with governments. chairman bernanke hasn't even commented on it himself, that there's an incentives to weaken their currency. they're going to own stocks to protect that. >> you believe people should buy stocks now? >> i think people should buy some stocks now in order to protect against the transition from deflation to inflation. we have been in a deflationary period now for five years and it's really been driven by the collapse in the credit systems. people are saying we have printed all this money, why vsht we got inflation? you still have central banks working even closer with governments to create that transition. >> a lot of people have reported that velocity number. do you also think that you should come into next year either shortening the long bond where it has not done well, or at the very least start taking money out
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00pm EST
market continues to watch the fiscal cliff. trading action has resolvolved around this. ben, what is your fiscal cliff strategy? what do you want to do with your money in the economy does go off the fiscal cliff? >> yeah, we were worried about that back in september, october. so even though we like the equity markets going into 2013, we wanted to hedge ourselves a little bit, so we took money out of equities. didn't just put it into cash. we put it into three areas we think are still good long term. one is we talk about emerging market equities, but i like emerging market debt. these monetary authorities are done tightening. they fought the inflationary problem that they had successfully. they're in hoed. yield curves could shift down. we stress doing it in local currency. the other areas are u.s. high yield, which i still think is valuable. we do think spreads will contract and emerging market equities as well. >> jordan, what about you? how are you preparing for what could be an eventuality where we go over the cliff and we've got to deal with higher taxes and a slower economy? a lot of people expecting recession in 2013, if, in fact, this occurs. >> think about what
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 6:00am EST
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CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 12:00pm EST
noise and recognizing that we will get a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff and there is fundamental sound footing in both the economy and the market that people want to be invested. i'm just looking at where the market is relative to its lowest point on november 16th to where it was on november 6th to where it is now. >> look, the dow is back above 13,000. it's clearly resilient. the market's been able to rise above even as some of the folks down in dc have not been able to. senator schumer is making apparently some more positive comments now. so the dow is moving up by 25 points or so. you cannot escape the fact, murph, every time somebody speaks in dc the market moves and we're sitting here or the folks at home who are watching now trying to make trades or investing in the market for the long term are trying to figure out what the heck to do because they can't figure out the market based on what one of these guys or gals is saying on the hill. >> or someone running a hedge fund that has to report results to their investors after tomorrow. so it's really tough in the short term to trade this market. i'm going to agree
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 5:00pm EST
are concerned about the china growth story for a while. before the fiscal cliff that was a predominant conversation. as i look at it and combine it with fiscal cliff i am pessimistic. the only thing that keeps the economy moving is the effect of wide deficits, monetary policies. i am not feeling that good about it. >> we can string our own story together. we have to admit that in november consumer discretionary was the top performing s&p sector. how do you account for that divergence? people are now getting concerned about the consumer? >> we are getting worried about the consumer in china. we knew the industrial story in china was problematic and the consumer was the good news. now we are worried about the consumerer over here despite the fact that housing prices are improving and we are headed to the holiday. dan mentions tiffany. mcdonald's which really hung in there and done well not as well as yum but mcdonald's is faced with problems as far as same store sales and turnover. none of these consumer names, none of them are doing really well. >> to the yum story if we are going to say yum is having problems in china you have to think about the other multinationals that are highly leveraged to china growth,
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 9:00am EST
number. i think only u.s. government now can stop this kind of job growth. a fiscal cliff go over -- >> snatching victory from the jaws. >> a superstorm. nothing can stop the generation of jobs in this economy. >> there's a great article today in one of the papers about how apartment building, we have a shortage of apartments and shortage of housing and shortage of autos and shortage of office buildings developing, shortage of shopping centers, shortage of shopping malls. this is what begins a movement. you have to hire eventually. now you could say people are not looking for work, come on. look, jobs are here. they can -- it can be just easily reversed if you have no idea what is the future because of washington. >> given the data points that we've had in terms of claims numbers that did reflect an impact from sandy, they said 85,000 jobs or 86,000 jobs were sliced because of impact of sandy. average hours worked unchanged. doesn't that -- i don't know -- doesn't that bring into question a little bit the participation in the survey. how can it have no impact whatsoever? it seems curious to me. >> it does call into question whether these numbers can be accurate. we have been starting to think let's che
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00pm EST
happen in terms of the markets. do you expect the economy to go over the fiscal cliff? what kind of reaction might we see in the market if that were to materialize? >> well, if we saw the market sell off in a big way, i don't think anybody believes we're going to go over the fiscal cliff. there will be some sort of resolution. they'll come up with some tax cuts, some breaks in spending, and probably kick the can down the road on a lot of it. i love the way this market is acting. it's not selling off with all the bad news, all the bickering, all the bad words on each side. you've got to love the way that this market is holding up here. doesn't mean investors need to be carefree, but overall, it looks like the market is setting up with a lot of negative sentiment out there. looks like there's a lot of opportunity for a big run higher once we get some form of resolution. i really believe we're going to get it. >> you think by year end? >> i really do. i think they want to go home for christmas. they're not going to want to not go home for christmas. you can always count on politicians
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 12:00pm EST
listen to speaker boehner making comments right now on the fiscal cliff. >> small business owners are regular men and women from all backgrounds who in today's economy are facing challenges on a daily basis. the president's tax increase would be another crippling blow for them while doing little to nothing to solve the bigger problem here which is our national deficit and our national debt. this debt doesn't exist because we don't tax small businesses enough. it exists because washington continues to spend too much. raising taxes on small businesses instead of taking a balanced approach that also cuts spending is wrong. it's only going to make it harder for our economy to grow. if our economy doesn't grow, americans don't get new jobs. and the debt problem that we have will continue to threaten our children's future. as i said the day after the election the republicans are not seeking to impose our will on the president. we're seeking a bipartisan solution that can pass both chambers of congress and be signed into law by the president in the coming days. during the campaign the president pledged to american people that he would seek a balanced approach
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 1:00pm EST
edge of the fiscal cliff. >> reporter: not surprisingly, democratic house leader nancy pelosi had precisely the opposite explanation for what is behind this stalemate. she says republicans simply echoing the white house are going to have to buckle on the issue of the top rates. >> the only obstacle standing in the way of middle income tax relief are the republicans unwillingness to ask the top 2% to pay their fair share. >> but tyler, as you suggested, this is all a work in progress. the thing we cannot see that is not visible to the public or to the press is what's going on behind the scenes. staff discussions resumed yesterday. don't know how fruitful. i haven't gotten much of a signal from people on either side that a deal is close, but they're work rg at it and sometimes these situations can turn around quickly. >> john, what of the reports today that perhaps at some point the republicans in the house and in the senate would go along with the idea of extending the bush era tax cuts for the under-250 cohort of taxpayers, but let the rest of the thing just go off the cliff? is t
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 2:00pm EST
optimistic outlook for us. i think if we can get this fiscal cliff thing out of the way in the u.s., the case for the economy to expand at a 2% clip or so is pretty strong. in terms of the equity markets, we're going into the year thinking that the bias is top upside here. i think the trend that we've seen of late absent a stupidity mistake out of washington is likely to hold for the foreseeable future. >> a prediction for 2013 from you as well, gina, perhaps the one kwe can steal. >> we think we're more tempered. we think it is probably 1.6% growth but we'd agree there will probably and positive bias in the first half of the year and probably a more negative bias during the second half of the year. >> 1.6% growth, gina, stinks! that's not even growth. it's not even keeping up with inflation. that's negative real growth. >> i didn't say we were optimistic about growth. i just said there might be some support in the market. >> that's going to be an interesting back half of the year. >> when you say positivity for the market, give us some levels, if you can. how much we're going to be up next year, if that's the
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 6:00am EST
long term effects for business travel if the economy falls off the fiscal cliff? the gbta predicts the reduced deficits and lower interest rates will lead to growth in the economy and an increase in business travel spending. >>> welcome back. now to the weather channel. reynolds wolf is standing by. what is happening around the country today? >> the story is all west. everything is taking place out west. rain, some strong winds, even some snow. some places snow getting up to around 2, 3 feet, but that is high elevation. but for the eastern seaboard, pretty quiet p. temperatures very mild this time of year. when you get into the center of the u.s., still fairly mild conditions. a bit cooler as you might imagine in spots up like towards the twin cities and even over towards chicago. but then out west, that's where the trouble really brews. it's that time of year that there's norm lay big area of high pressure that sets up off the west coast. that's gone and that allows all the pacific moisture to come through. high snow will be an issue. rain in seattle. so how is it going to affect your travel? a little bit of a trend continuing here. again, all your issues out towa
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 12:00pm EST
geopolitical risk. we're talking about fiscal cliff, and we're forgetting about the weak economy in the uk. there are two things that i'm watching. i'm looking at central banks around the world constituent adding physical gold to their coffers to the opportunity of 400 tons. and a new investor class, the etp, investors holding 2600 tons of gold and the fourth largest holder. so when i start watching, if we start reducing those levels, maybe the top is in. by the way, the dollar is closer to the lows than it is to the highs, so keep an eye on the dollar as well. >> okay. it sounds like it's too early to call in your view. let's look at what goldman is cowling for. they're cutting their 3, 6 and 12-month targets. do you agree with those levels where you see it going long term and short term? >> jackie, you know, the numbers we have to watch right now, i don't know if i necessarily agree with those numbers. but the numbers we're looking at right now are the numbers we have covered on this show a few times. it's 1675 to 1672. that's the big support there. if we get through that, we'll see 1
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 2:00pm EST
progress because there is no progress to report. when it comes to the fiscal cliff that's threatening our economy and threatening jobs, the white house has wasted another week. >> so we all also from nancy pelosi, the democratic leader in the house of representatives earlier today. she came before cameras also, no news from her had as well. holding pattern here in washington. rhetoric is pretty heated on both sides. you heard boehner there saying the president has wasted a week here. but behind the scenes, aides did give us some indication they'll continue to talk through the weekend so i think what's going on here is you're seeing the public blast of ret lick but behind the scenes they are talking to each other. i think the talks are fair le well coordinated. you can tell that by how tightly the white house and boehner camp on the press side have coordinated their rollouts of what they've said about these talks. they're within minutes of each other, using the same language. that's an indication talks are sort of going along here. it is not an indication we will have a deal any time soon but there's
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 3:00pm EST
the fiscal cliff could have on the economy here, mark? >> honestly, we're essentially sector agnostic with we talk about managing money on a five-year duration for our clients. when you look at some of the master limited partnerships that are out there, the kinder morgans, specter energy looks like a good play. we're looking at the 4% to 5% yielders, companies that have a good track record of increasing those yields. we're sticking more with consumer staples. we're definitely tilted towards that defensive end. but we're going to stay there. as long as growth is slow, that's where we feel we can get the best risk adjusted returns for our clients. >> all right. thanks for joining us. mark, good to see you. rick, have a good weekend. gordon, have a good time at the beacon tonight. we're less than an hour from the trade month. kayla rounds up november's big winners and losers. >> hey, bill. the indices may have danced along the flat line for the entire month, but there were clear winners and losers on either side of the tape. to the downside, several companies falling markedly. exelon dow
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 1:00pm EST
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CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 3:00pm EST
looking past the fiscal cliff issue and focusing on the very, very decent and accelerating fundamentals of the u.s. economy. >> maybe, and that's just today, right, ron? >> been since last week. >> we were talking about the market really being so sensitive to any rhetoric out of washington. >> i'm not saying it's not hostage to headlines. we'll get intraday volatility. from the monday before thank giving until now, we have effectively wiped out the losses we saw post-election. >> rick, how do you see it? market complacency, too much angst, are we overthinking this? how do you read the market right now? >> i think that the low volume movements of the equity markets aren't really telling you any information. there's no way even in aggregate a market could decide what's going on in harry reid or john boehner's brain in anything is going on in begin with. if you look at treasuries overlaid on top of equities, until mr. boehner's comments, the treasuries have taken the big picture on all of this. they're not going anywhere fast. fiscal cliff is important, but there's a lot of issues for the next several years that are go
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00am EST
for both political parties and think if we go off the fiscal cliff for very long the economy will almost certainly go into a recession. if it didn't, the economists are going to have to revise all our models. so i think it could occur if we go very long. and if we do that, the question is who's going do that. i think the republicans get a lot to alabama. on the other hand it would also derail his second term. he wouldn't have get anything done. they both have a lot to lose. and the question is who's going to compromise and who's going to swerve first in this high stakes game of chicken. >> greg, one thing that i hear all the time from democrats is that the clinton years were really good because of the clinton tax rates. one of the things in the fiscal cliff is going back to the clinton era tax rates for everybody. now, i know there's sequestration and payroll tax. there's a lot of other things in there, but we did okay with those tax rates. why did we just assume there'd be a recession. >> let me mention a couple of things from the 1990s that are very different from today. first,
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 2:00pm EST
cliff. but offsetting that is an economy which is firing on many more cylinders than it was a year ago. employment rate's coming down. bank lending rising, housing activity going up, confidence is down, debt burdens are down. in addition there is a lot of stimulus. money supply is growing rapidly. record low mortgage rates. we have the dollar down. we got gas prices falling at the pump for the holiday season. we've got inflation decelerating from where it was helping real incomes. i'm seeing a lot of evidence of china showing signs of new acceleration. we might get the emerging world doing better next year. we've certainly calmed down concerns about the eurozone. so i think there's a real case that we grow 3%, the emerging world picks up, and the valuation on equities rises -- >> even if we don't get a deal in taxes? we hear that the average family will pay $1,200 more in taxes over the year and it is going to doom the economy. it's instant recession. >> well, there's no doubt if we have complete meltdown and gridlock in washington and we have a $600 billion-plus contraction hittin
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 6:00am EST
fiscal cliff. what caterpillar's ceo told the president and the company's plans for 2013. can the economy dig its way out of this slow growth rut? find out at 7:30 this morning right here on "squawk box." americans believe they should be in charge of their own future. how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years, ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures. helping millions of americans retire on their terms. when they want. where they want. doing what they want. ameriprise. the strength of a leader in retirement planning. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you one-to-one. together for your future. ♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk box." we're just about an hour away from the first time jobless claims. planned job cuts rose for the third straight month in november according to the latest challenger report that number rose to more than 57,000 last month up 34% from november of 2011. the year-to-date total is still 13% below where it was a year ago. also the european central bank will be announcing its latest interest rate decision in a few minutes coming up at 7:45 ea
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 3:00pm EST
to slow walk our economy right to the edge of the fiscal cliff. >> former presidential candidate and vermont governor howard dean says bring it on. going over the fiscal cliff will actually help america. he's going to make his case, very bold statement there, to someone whose company will be decimated by the spending cuts to defense companies. you do not want to miss this confrontation. ricans are alwayso work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength of a global financial leader. the heart of a one-to-one relationship. together for your future. ♪ >>> pretty clear apple stock is having its worst week in more than two years. let's get to bertha coombs with the details. >> tough end of the week ear. it's apple's horrible, awful week. today's decline saw shares hit a real technical weak point, the so-called death cross. that's where the
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00pm EST
fiscal cliff resolution, whenever it is, i think the markets will work higher because the underlying fundamentals in the u.s. economy are clearly improving, and you also have a stabilization or soft landing happening in china at the same time. >> david kelly, what do you want to be doing here? what's your strategy for the fiscal cliff? do you think we go over it, and what do you want to do? >> for a long-term investor, you don't try and play this one. i agree with stephanie about the market probably going higher once they get a resolution. they will get a resolution. it's possible it could go into early january. i still think they're more likely to get a resolution done before the end of the year. either way, they'll get a resolution done. when that happens, then we'll resort to looking at the u.s. economy, which is strengthening a bit here. also, the extreme and relative valuations between high-quality fixed income and equities will push money towards equities. i would not run for cover here because of the volatility. i think you just have to, you know, hold your ground through this and hope that the market moves highe
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 1:00pm EST
a lot. >> ty, to you. >> sue, 27 days to go until the fiscal cliff deadline and new data out showing one sector is pulling back their investments amid the uncertainty. phil lebeau in chicago with the story. phil? >> talking about business owners flat-out spooked about the economy, about the fiscal cliff and about whether or not there's going to be any certainty any time soon. we will explain and have the latest numbers coming up on "power lunch." i gave birth to my daughter on may 18th, five days later, i had a massive heart attack. bayer aspirin was the first thing the emts gave me. now, i'm on a bayer aspirin regimen. [ male announcer ] be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. [ woman ] learn from my story. ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ [ male announcer ] oh what fun it is to ride. get the mercedes-benz on your wish list at the winter event going on now through december 31st. [ santa ] ho, ho, ho! [ male announcer ] lease a 2013 e350 for $579 a month at your l mercedes-benz dealer. >>> welcome back to "power lunch," comments from jpmorgan cfo doug bronstein presenting at the goldman sachs financial conference today, jpmorgan expects low rate ounce deposits to take $400 million out of net income in 2012 and 2013. mortgage only nation volume high
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 3:00pm EST
. will the white house let our economy go over the fiscal cliff if a deal on higher tax rates for the wealthy is not reached? we're checking it out. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] research suggests cell health plays a key role throughout our lives. one a day men's 50+ is a complete multivitamin designed for men's health concerns as we age. it has 7 antioxidants to support cell health. one a day men's 50+. it's easy to follow the progress you're making toward all your financial goals. a quick glance, and you can see if you're on track. when the conversation turns to knowing where you stand, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. >>> welcome back. this very public negotiation on the fiscal cliff still does not seem to be closing in on a deal. the white house out in campaign style events regularly, making multiple media appearances, kle including timothy geithner right here in 25 minutes. >> but would things be done faster if it was done privately? in his latest column, jeff goldfor a compares u.s. budget talks to merger proxy battles. jeff joins us to explain about that. plus, we have
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 7:00pm EST
. >>> now, litz listen to, this fiscal cliff or no fiscal cliff, your taxes will probably go up anyway. it's all because of obama. >> the economy, slam investors and triple capitalism. say no to nationalized health care system, no to blanket tax increases and that means let low. [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- what starts with adding a friend... ♪ ♪ ...could end with adding a close friend. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection. bp has paid overthe people of bp twenty-threeitment to the gulf. billion dollars to help those affected and to cover cleanup costs. today, the beaches and gulf are open, and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. and bp's also committed to america. we support nearly 250,000 jobs and invest more here than anywhere else. we're working to fuel america for generations to come. our commitment has never been stronger. with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 9:00am EST
fiscal cliff and having big tax increases. they feel that they have slowed their economy too much and it's time to put more gasoline on it. they actually have the ability to do that. the communist party is very well run. ceo is terrific. they may declare a special dividend. >> the ceo is no andrew mason. >> no. if the ceo were to leave, i don't know if the stock would pop. >> bob pisani is on the floor watching what's moving on this friday. good morning, bob. >> we opened flat by in large. i have to say the commentary this morning, the mood is gloomier than i have seen recently. there's been a lot of hope that a deal could be reached here. how's this for gloom? 2013 is going to be tough. fiscal cliff or not. how's this one? we lose either way. you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00am EST
perry will join us to talk taxes, fiscal cliff and growth in the economy. you can't afford to miss "squawk box" tomorrow starting at 6:00 a.m. eastern. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. gecko (clearing throat) thank you, mr. speaker, uh, members of congress. in celebration of over 75 years of our government employees insurance company, or geico...as most of you know members it.congress. ...i propose savings
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 3:00pm EST
to go that high. >> if we go over the fiscal cliff, it does go that high. it goes to 44%. >> no, no. don't think the worst. >> less than a month, it goes there. >> i want to think like an optimist, but i'm not going to put rose-colored glasses on. i see what's going on. >> there's no safe haven for capital or capitalists. you have to take some chances. >> my question here is what happens if january 2nd comes, we go over the fiscal cliff, and the world doesn't end and we kind of just get acclimated to this whole thing of just going forward with these higher tax rates? what do you do then if you get stuck in some of these positions? i'm looking at a couple other numbers. cash, $2.6 trillion. i saw before i came out here that corporate bond issuance went over. i think there are a lot of ramifications. i think just to dismiss this is really inviting trouble. >> think about all the corporate bond issuers out there. they're taking a window of opportunity because that window is going to close. they're running for the hills had to make sure they get all the bonds issued they can. >> if we g
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00pm EST
fiscal cliff-induced recession. people do not stop taking life-saving medicines just because the economy slows down. alexia, on the other hand, not no. 23409 so hot. the stock has tripled since i first got behind it it's down about 14% since i highlighted it as an anointed growth stock two months ago. that's unacceptable. alexia is a orphan drug maker whose lead drug has been incredibly successful. however, even though alexia raised guidance, not unlike tractor supply, the stock sold off because the sales only met expectations rather than beating them. given the huge run in the stock going to the quarter. alexia had to do more than just meet the expectations. they had to beat that and crush them. and this time around, it got crushed. that said, to me the market overreacted, alexia has received fda approval to use solera for new indication that could be worth $900 million in peak sales and another $2.5 billion worth of new indications that the company is working on for this one medication. plus intriguing things in the pipe. although they're still in the early stages of development, so don't lo
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 9:00am EST
." here's what's happening so far. >> we need to recognize the short term challenge is the fiscal cliff. the structural challenge is what it's going to take to get a grand bargain. >> europe has dealt with some of its long-term issues, even though the economies are week, and given the relative returns on value and offer in markets, i detect the first signs of people shifting more towards europe from the u.s. >> this is pornography for grover norquist, just like the supreme court, he can smell it when he sees it. he will target, okay? he will destroy republicans who go and pledge. he is much more powerful than any individual -- any individual -- any individual ceo. maybe you want him to go into the pharmaceutical business. the weight loss business is for sale. not a lot of synergy there. but you can't find growth in the personal computer business. it just doesn't exist. >> no. >> there's the bell. >> let's not continue to negotiate this into the 11th hour, because every day we go on during this period, during retail season, you're holding back consumers, which we all know consumer confidence, two-thirds of the economy, folks are just not buying stuff, because they don't know what's going to happen. >> we're checking our lists, as the "squawk on t
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00am EST
the fiscal cliff simply because that's going to create all sorts of worries around the world. >> and also because of the austerity measures. >> that's true, as well. the u.s. economy is still the driver of the world economy, still the biggest economy. if you're going to look for something to happen, look for consumers to come back and move and get production generated, it's going to be here, not somewhere else. so if the u.s. puts in austerity as you say, then that is going to drag on the economies around the rest of the world. and you're looking at, i think, more concerns, and that could go back to the dollar, surprisingly. >> kevin, why don't we talk about oil prices? we did see oil touch above $90 last week at the end of the week. but it was a very brief move, this morning back down around $88. what's driving things right now? is it geopolitical or more of a story about what's happening in economies around the world? >> merry fiscal cliff-mas to you. you're going to see more bouncing like a yo yo, on the fundamental story, the models we have pointing going into 1q, the reason, it sort of rhymes in the spirit of the season. you have non-opec demand growing, global
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00am EST
over the fiscal cliff. play out the scenario for how things would go down if we actually do move past january 1 without an agreement. >> if you get lots of economist projections, you'll see the general view is the economy would have negative growth or a couple percentage points, whatever it is. near term recession impact. and that nt would be good to the economy because it's been moving its way out. what's really after people is will we be serious about fixing the long term problems of america's fiscal situation. basically having more revenue and less expenses so we can get the thing more if line. and that's pre-occupying people because they're worried about the longer term issue. if this doesn't move forward with a solution that actually starts to layout the ground work for the long term issues, it could be potentially disappointing. >> ceos say they have to lay out their plans for what they're planning on doing in january and they have to move forward with the plan that has an assumption that we don't get some sort of a solution. do you hear that from your clients? >> yes, absolutely. so i think it's not january. they were forming these plans in august and september. so even leading up to that, people are
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 1:00pm EST
, it is very eas. we're going to talk about the fiscal cliff. if we go over it, will it really destroy the u.s. economy? we'll show you some stats to make you go -- hmm. we'll talk more about apple's slide, should microsoft's ceo steve ballmer get the boot if the surface fails. and we will introduce to you quite possibly the world's dumbest demolition crew. it involves a multi-million dollar bore chateau and really bad bulldozing. >> yikes. see you at 1:00, brian. thank you. >>> listen up wall street recruiters, a recent rash of college cheating scandals has shown academic dishonesty is unfortunately a very big problem on campus today. who are the worst offenders? tonight's premier of "faking the grade -- classroom cheaters," we'll tell you. they'll find out which students are most likely to cut corners in the battle to gain an edge. >> reporter: don mccabe and his canadian colleague collaborate on research. mccabe says in the u.s. business students cheat the most. engineering students are often near the top of the list. and so are communications and journalism students. women studied at one university said t
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 5:00pm EST
tonight. >>> everyone cares about the fiscal cliff, except, seemingly, the markets. just 25 days until the year end deadline and still no deal out of washington. still stocks quietly climb higher. the dow closing today at a one-month high. what gives? just an assumption that a deal -- >> it almost gets back to that you never short. we're all waiting for some type of closure on the fiscal cliff. so everyone's afraid to take that stab in the dark and say, you know what? things look terrible. no matter how they paint the picture, things look slower in the next couple of quarters than they do right now. am i right? >> yeah. >> so global growth, you have everything coming in, global growth is going to be terrible. growth here around 2%, 2.5%. so people want to short the market, they're just so afraid to because every time they short it, it bounces right back. >> and it seems now with headlines, the markets don't seem to react. we had tim geithner yesterday saying, absolutely, we're willing to go over the fiscal cliff no reaction from the markets today. >> there's going to be a comprom
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00am EST
other risks out there especially in the shoth term. concerns over the u.s. fiscal cliff, for example, is one of them. >> and as you mentioned, concerns about the relationship. a hoegs was passed by by a pretty good margin. the move was strongly opposed by both the u.s. and israel about that. >> the only way forward is not meaningless theater at the united nations. the only way forward is to have meaningful peace talks, to engage for israelis and palestinians to try to solve the problems together. and that's what we're proposing. direct face to face peace talks. >> against this backdrop, the next opec meeting i believe december 12th is approaching. how do you expect the nations involved to respond? >> so far i guess with wti prices under $100, saudi arabia has achieve wlad it has publicly announced it wanted as in a price under $100. so right now i think there's very little scope for change in either production or actual quotas for the cartel. relative to developments around gaza, of course they're adding an additional layer to geopolitical tensions. but then again, if you consider th
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 12:00pm EST
fiscal cliff talks. is there a method behind what appears to be political madness? in advance of friday's jobs report, a surprising new look about what kind of companies are actually creating new jobs in this economy? we'll have some of the best job creators next hour. and, three things you need to understand about the new facebook messaging announcement. join us on "power." back to scott. >>> we'll see you in about 15 minutes. sometimes it's tough to buy the losers and sell the winners. you know that. let's play a little hold them or fold them, what stocks have made big moves of late. marathon petroleum up more than 78% year to date. joe, hold them or fold them? >> absolutely hold them. you're talking about a mid continent refiner here. secular momentum, clearly a strategy here like rg3 with your redskins, the game has changed and it's changed for years. >> all right. dish network, the stock five-year high, 45% move this year. hold them, fold them? >> i'm folding. i like the cable. not just because of comcast, but i like the cable sector better. very, very competitive. you can tell how competitive it's getting when dish is looking to get into the telephone business and get struck going which the governm
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 9:00am EST
. i didn't find -- look. maybe you think that we go to fiscal cliff and it's so deflationary that no one wants to own gold. you could argue that this is a return to the great recession. i don't know. in terms of slowdown in the economy and why inflation is dead. inflation would be dealt a mortal blow if there was inflation by going over the fiscal cliff. austerity does not breed inflation. >> do you believe that sandy is a convenient excuse here for these adp numbers? >> i think sandy was terrible. goldman upgrades waste management today. anyone who has ever been to the giant dumps that waste management has, it's where you dump -- dumping is an expensive thing. when you're a contractor and you have to clean up sandy of which there's immense damage, waste management gets a cut of everything. i think sandy is gigantic. the ripples continue to come. i think new york is going to be hurt very badly by sandy. >> let's move onto starbucks. starbucks today brewing more than coffee. world's largest coffee company announcing during investor day today it plans to open 1,500 stores in the u.s. in the next five years. it plans to add more than 20,000 new cafes worldwide by 2014. much of its growth coming from china. and of course th
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00am EST
so, as the fiscal cliff debate developments, there is limited up side for interest rates and it's hard to see stocks moving much higher. >> so let's suppose we get an agreement. that should increase confidence. does that mean the economy performs better next year than we expect and then what's the feed through from that? >> yeah, i think while we're now focused on a lot of the down side risks not only from the fiscal cliff but obviously also from the eurozone crisis, we may have overlooked some of these up side potential for next year. so if we get a favorable resolution for the fiscal cliff, i think we can see interest rates move up quite sharply. that would be because expectations for growth could be much higher, so if growth is around the 2% in the first half of the year, we could be haufing over the 3% range in the second half of the rear. that would mean higher interest rates and that could be a very poor result for top quality bonds. >> and when you're talk about interest rates, you're talking about market rates as opposed to fed rates, right? >> the treasury rate, baseline underwhich say corporate bonds move. >> okay. you mentioned how much. so what would be the long term impact of that? >> in a very short amount of tim
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 7:00pm EST
fiscal cliff, they will do something to stop the taxes from expiring. he doesn't want to be herbert hoover obama. i'm putting that on the table. if you take that off the table, you look at the economy, profits, the stuff, there's no lending going on, what is your outlook for the stock market? ivities i think we would be higher if we didn't have this issue. we have low interest rates, not only here, but globally the monetary policy will stay easy. whether you like it or not, it's going to stay easy for a long time. >> i would argue that it's helped. i would look at the gdp revisions and take the over side. a number of companies said they weren't spending at all and if they were getting push-outs from their customers because of fiscal cliff. >> i'm saying we reported there's a contraction. that could be good for stocks. >> if you get a resolution, then you get past that and businessless start to spend again. then the 2.7% gdp number, maybe it's higher than that. if we could get off the backs of businesses, we would get 5%, 6%, and it would go to -- >> but even with lower. >> i want to ask you this. the reason i want you to forget the fiscal cliff is the washington crowd will do something to s
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 7:00pm EST
, appreciate it very much. >> thanks. >>> with just 26 days until we fall off the tax and fiscal cliff, two dozen house republicans have apparently defected from the boehner plan and signed a bipartisan letter with democrats. people are now asking is there a fallback position for the gop? well, here now to tell us is house majority whip california republican kevin mccarthy, the number three man. mr. mccarthy, as always, thank you for coming back on the show. can i get your comment on this letter, two dozen republicans, they're talking about tax rate flexibility along with a bunch of democrats. what's your take, sir? >> well, remember what they're saying here. what they're saying is that they're going to put everything on to the table. what we've been talking about for so long is where the president has been awol, this is a spending issue that we have a real problem with. we agree that we'll provide revenue, but we do not want to hurt a pro growth economy here. so it's how you go about it. that's why we think the rates have to be frozen. the other thing we're look at, the president says
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00am EST
fiscal cliff one way or another whether come up with something that's good enough for now. >> it will have a biggerle impact on market prices as opposed to the economy, so buy on the dips. >> what does that mean for the last few weeks of -- just look at some of the prices here. the dow up 5%, s&p up a lot more. 12% despite the dip since october and september. for the last few weeks we just meander into it some. >> it's hard to say. i think there is at this point probably more risk on the down side if some of the negotiations were to break apart. i think the deal is priced in, so the rally may be pretty short lived. >> daniel, thanks very much for joining us. a couple story here. if you're looking for the city with the best quality of living in the world, then head to vienna. this according to consulting group mercer just published its quality of life survey. zurich number two. baghdad ranked last over concerns over security and political instability. and it is official, a new royal highness is on the way. after week of speculation, the duke and duchess have confirmed they are expecting their first child. the duchess thought to be under 12 weeks pregnant
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 4:00am EST
-- >> what assumptions are you making in this about the fiscal cliff and about further risks from eurozone financial crisis? go . >> we know the markets are driven on a minute by minute basis, but if we just step back from that, the chances that in two to three months from now, obviously we could briefly go over in january, i think that's unlikely, the chance that we'll really have the u.s. economy squeeze by 4%, 5% of gdp, i think it's incredibly unlikely. >> what are you assuming about the ongoing eurozone -- >> the eurozone, if we go through a series of ticks, we have had a lot of progress this year. you have to be clear about that. and not just with all the various government actions. look at wages in greece and now spain. wages in greece are down more than 25%. very painful, but we've heard about the pain already. what we haven't heard so much about is the competitiveness. >> enor husband costs with incredibly high unemployment rates. >> that i'm afraid is what's going on and that's extremely unpleasant. what i'm saying in terms of market action is we know about that, we're f
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